Brazil is on the brink of its most important election in recent history. On October 2, Brazilian voters went to the polls for the first round of the general election. In an outcome that shocked some, incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advanced to the second round with 43 and 48 percent of the vote, respectively. Many thought that Lula would win in the first round but the results put the two against each other for a run-off vote on October 30.
Brazil’s elections have important ramifications for the world. President Bolsonaro has been pushed closer to Russia and Iran in recent months; however, a Lula victory would openly embrace the VRIC and its malign regional allies, namely Venezuela and Bolivia. If Bolsonaro is reelected, the prognosis is more nuanced. In a recent episode of the Border Wars Podcast, SFS Senior Fellow Leonardo Coutinho and the former Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo stated that a second term for President Bolsonaro would likely not seek out a closer relationship with China, but could be steered into one. And a potential Lula presidency would significantly deepen Brazil and China’s relationship. Making international observers nervous about the outcome of Brazil’s election.
This comes as American policymakers are increasingly concerned about China’s influence in Latin America. In an unclassified report to the U.S. Congress, sent in early July, the State Department noted that China’s acquisition of technologies, facilities, and infrastructure in Latin America has military purposes. Shortly after, while speaking at the Aspen Security Conference, the head of U.S. Southern Command, Gen. Laura Richardson, described how Chinese state-owned companies on both sides of the Panama Canal “could be turned quickly toward military capabilities.” Many of these Chinese state-owned companies have ties to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and are involved in around 40 port infrastructure projects, from Mexico down to Peru, that combined with eleven satellite ground stations in Latin America, provide China with strategic positioning in the Western Hemisphere.
Russia complements, rather than competes with China’s strategic positioning by expanding its GLONASS satellite navigation system throughout Latin America. Already with four stations in Brazil, one in Nicaragua, and another being built in Venezuela, it is reported that Russia is negotiating to install additional satellite systems in Ecuador, Cuba, and Mexico, as recently announced by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Within this context, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken took a three-country tour of South America in October, to Colombia, Chile, and Peru in an effort to shore up support to countries whose democracies are being challenged. The question remains; however, is promoting democracy enough in a region that sees the rise of a new populist, authoritarian wave?
American military leaders have raised alarm about a surge in Chinese-owned or controlled ports in Latin America and the Caribbean. According to U.S. Southern Command, Chinese companies are constructing at least 40 ports on both sides of the Panama Canal in Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, and the Bahamas. One mega project, the Chancay Port Terminal, 67 miles outside of Lima, is in its second year of construction and claims to be the largest and most strategic port for China in South America. Led by China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), connected to the Communist Party of China, this project alone is a four billion dollar investment and has been dubbed, “China’s gateway to Latin America.”
The concern that China could begin to use strategic ports to host Chinese warships comes as Uruguay’s General Assembly approved the implementation of joint defense efforts with China to increase collaboration between their respective Defense Ministries, cooperating in the areas of research and acquisition of defense goods and services and promoting combined military exercises and training.
Equally concerning is China’s growing use of satellite ground stations in Latin America. President Xi Jinping has called on the country to become a space power, with a government paper highlighting how the space industry serves its “national strategy.” A recent report by CSIS details the eleven satellite ground stations in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Brazil, and Venezuela that are owned or controlled by China, many with connections to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Strategic ports, piers, and satellite ground stations are just a piece of the puzzle. Economic overtures continue to be China’s primary outreach to Latin America. In September, Ecuador reached a deal to restructure its debt to China, opening up millions of barrels of Ecuadorian crude to the Asian giant in a spot sale. This follows an audit by Ecuador’s Congress earlier this year that concluded the Andean country lost up to $5 billion due to Petrochina, an arm of China National Petroleum Corporation, undervaluing the price of oil during the tenure of Rafael Correa.
The Ukraine War continues to rage on with Russia re-launching another military assault on Kyiv and other cities on October 11. While the West scrambles to bridge the North-South divide aggravated by the war, Ukraine has appointed a special envoy for Latin America, Amb. Ruslan Spirin, who is charged with combating disinformation from Russian state-owned media in Spanish and Portuguese.
Russian disinformation in Latin America was on full-blast during the International Army Games in August, especially in Venezuela. Social media was flooded with videos and posts of Venezuelan, Russian, Iranian, Chinese, Cuban, Bolivian, Nicaraguan, and other soldiers, training side by side in Ft. Terepaima in the Lara State of Venezuela. Meanwhile, the Sputnik radio network and a Nicaraguan state media conglomerate inked a deal making Russian content available to more than 20 Nicaraguan state channels, broadcasting to 6.6 million people throughout the country. This could catapult Nicaragua to Venezuela’s status, which according to media watchdog, NewsGuard, has become Russia’s best conduit for disinformation in Latin America.
In September, Nicaragua took part in another major multinational military exercise, the Vostok 2022 in Russia’s far east and the Sea of Japan, to showcase the blossoming joint capabilities of Moscow and Beijing, with the People’s Republic of China, for the first time, sending troops to the exercise from all three branches of its military.
Venezuela is also expanding cooperation with Russia in all areas, including in the energy and pharmaceutical sectors. Vladimir Putin exalted Caracas as its “strategic partner and reliable ally in Latin America” before announcing that a GLONASS satellite navigation system is being built in Venezuela. A similar satellite base in Nicaragua has raised suspicions, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador confirmed that Russia will install a GLONASS satellite system in Mexico, for “peaceful purposes.”
Protests erupted in Iran on September 17, triggered by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died after being arrested by “morality police” for not wearing a hijab according to regime standards. While many believe the protests could lead to the end of the Islamic Republic, across the Atlantic things are business as usual.
On October 14, an Argentine court granted permission for the final five crew members of the Venezuelan cargo plane Emtrasur YV3531 to leave the country. Four days later, the Iranian crew members met with Venezuelan Ambassador Stella Marina Lugo de Montilla at the Hotel Canning in Buenos Aires prior to taking off at 3:25AM on Tuesday, October 18 to Santa Cruz de la Sierra vía flight Boliviana de Aviación (BoA) 701. At least two of the Iranian crew members detained have confirmed ties to the IRGC and were found to have threatening messages and photos of weapons on their cell phones. With the ruling in Argentina, the cargo and crew have effectively been released but the actual plane, a Boeing 747-300(M), remains seized in Buenos Aires for violating U.S. sanctions and export controls. Meaning that the Maduro regime will likely continue to exert pressure on the Alberto Fernández government in Argentina to release the cargo plane.
As the cargo plane saga continues, Iran is capitalizing on the Russia-induced food insecurity crisis in Brazil through a “fertilizer” diplomacy push. In March, Brazilian Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina traveled to Tehran to purchase urea (fertilizer).
Then, Iranian Ambassador Hossein Gharibi began a series of trips to the agricultural producing regions of Brazil, likely to establish himself among rural leaders as a strategic partner of Brazil. In May, the Brazil-Iran Chamber of Commerce invited Brazilian businessmen on a two-week tour of Tehran to learn about investment opportunities. Meanwhile, an Iranian diplomatic mission in Brasilia visited the Foreign Relations and National Defense Commission of the Brazilian Congress to ratify its commitment to send 2 million tons of urea (fertilizer) by the end of the year.
At the UN General Assembly in New York, Iran’s foreign minister met with counterparts from Cuba and Nicaragua, while President Ebrahim Raisi held a closed-door meeting with Bolivia’s President Luis Arce to discuss strategic cooperation. Meanwhile, Venezuela and Uruguay are both becoming host to Iranian refineries, with the “El Palito” refinery on the Paraguana Peninsula in Venezuela now refining crude oil as the first overseas Iranian-refinery in a foreign country.
Hace una década, muchos en la comunidad estadounidense de política exterior y seguridad nacional restaban importancia a una alianza emergente entre Rusia y China, y descuidaban a Irán y Venezuela como parte de la competencia de grandes potencias que se alzaba para desafiar a Estados Unidos.
Hoy, es una realidad. Venezuela, Rusia, Irán y China o «The VRIC» están en una alianza estratégica que es evidente en conflictos globales como la Guerra en Ucrania o a través de ejercicios navales conjuntos en el Golfo de Omán. A pesar de sus diferencias naturales, The VRIC es cada vez más activo en regiones del mundo donde Estados Unidos está disperso.
En 2019, comenzamos el Programa de Amenazas Transregionales del VRIC para llenar este vacío y comenzar a educar a los responsables políticos sobre el desafío multidimensional y de seguridad nacional que plantean los actores estatales externos en América Latina y el Caribe.
Desde entonces, hemos publicado más de dos docenas de informes detallados y hemos concedido innumerables entrevistas y sesiones informativas sobre el VRIC. Muchos de nuestros informes, denominados VRIC Monitor, han sido citados en los principales medios de comunicación, como The Wall Street Journal y The Washington Post, o presentados en diversas sesiones informativas con el Departamento de Defensa (DoD) y ejércitos asociados de todo el mundo.
Ahora, a través de nuestro vanguardista sitio web multimedia, el Centro para una Sociedad Libre y Segura (SFS) puede mostrar en tiempo real todas las actividades del VRIC. Accediendo al mapa virtual interactivo podrá conocer los elementos diplomáticos, informativos, militares y económicos de la influencia estratégica de las redes de RVIC. El mapa es totalmente interactivo y permite realizar búsquedas por categoría, país, cronología y palabras clave.
El sitio web del VRIC Monitor permite correlacionar las actividades de Venezuela, Rusia, Irán y China en diferentes países latinoamericanos al mismo tiempo y a lo largo de una línea de tiempo de cinco años, para encontrar patrones, tendencias y, en última instancia, poder analizar la influencia estratégica de los adversarios cercanos de Estados Unidos en nuestro vecindario.
El Monitor VRIC es el mayor repositorio de información de código abierto sobre las actividades de China, Rusia e Irán en América Latina y el Caribe. Además del mapa interactivo, el Monitor VRIC produce informes analíticos, infografías detalladas y vídeos cortos para ayudarle a interpretar las actividades más relevantes del VRIC en un mes determinado.
Próximamente, el VRIC Monitor contará con una sección premium por suscripción que le permitirá profundizar en la influencia de actores externos mediante el análisis forense de la desinformación digital y el seguimiento de las rutas de viaje desde el extranjero. Estos productos premium se alimentan de una base de datos interna de SFS que utiliza herramientas de inteligencia artificial (IA) y aprendizaje automático para recopilar datos masivos sobre Venezuela, Rusia, Irán y China en inglés, español, portugués y francés (se espera añadir más idiomas en el futuro).
Este sitio web es un proyecto iterativo de SFS y se actualizará mensualmente y se mejorará periódicamente con nuevas funciones. El mapa interactivo se lanza con un sólido conjunto de datos de casi 2.000 entradas que se remontan a 2019. Tenemos previsto seguir añadiendo nuevas entradas mensualmente.
Gracias por visitar el VRIC Monitor y esperamos que este servicio sea útil para su investigación y análisis y pueda informar su comprensión de las amenazas, desafíos y oportunidades de seguridad nacional de los Estados Unidos en el Hemisferio Occidental.
A decade ago, many in the U.S. foreign policy and national security community were downplaying an emerging alliance between Russia and China, and neglected Iran and Venezuela as part of the Great Power Competition that was rising to challenge the United States.
Today, it’s a reality. Venezuela, Russia, Iran, and China or “The VRIC” are in a strategic alliance that is evident in global conflicts like the War in Ukraine or through joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. Despite their natural differences, The VRIC ™ is increasingly active in regions of the world where the United States is spread thin.
In 2019, we began the VRIC Transregional Threats Program to fill this gap and start educating policymakers about the multi-dimensional, national security challenge posed by external state actors in Latin America and the Caribbean. Since then, we have published more than two dozen detailed reports and given countless interviews and briefings about The VRIC ™.
Many of our reports, called the VRIC Monitor, have been cited in leading media outlets, such as The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, or featured in various briefings with the Department of Defense (DoD) and partner militaries around the world.
Now, through our cutting-edge, multimedia website, the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS) is able to illuminate the full range of VRIC activities in real-time. By accessing the interactive, virtual map you can learn about the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic elements of strategic influence by VRIC networks. The map is fully interactive and is searchable by category, country, timeline, and keywords.
The VRIC Monitor website allows you to correlate Venezuela, Russia, Iran, and China’s activities in different Latin American countries at the same time and across a five-year timeline, to find patterns, trends, and ultimately be able to analyse the strategic influence of America’s near-peer adversaries in our neighborhood.
The VRIC Monitor is the largest repository of open-source information on the activities of China, Russia, and Iran in Latin America and the Caribbean. Aside from the interactive map, the VRIC Monitor produces analytic reports, detailed infographics, and short videos to help you interpret the most relevant VRIC activities in a given month.
Coming soon the VRIC Monitor will have a subscription-based, premium section that will allow you to dig deeper into external actor influence by analyzing digital disinformation forensics and tracking travel routes from overseas. These premium products are powered by an SFS internal database that uses Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning tools to collect bulk data on Venezuela, Russia, Iran, and China in English, Spanish, Portuguese, and French (with additional languages expected to be added in the future).
This website is an iterative project by SFS and will be updated on a monthly basis and upgraded periodically with new features. The interactive map is launching with a robust data set of almost 2,000 entries dating back to 2019. We plan to continue to add new entries on a monthly basis.
Thank you for visiting the VRIC Monitor and we hope this service is useful for your research and analysis and can inform your understanding of U.S. national security threats, challenges, and opportunities in the Western Hemisphere.
